Global Statistics

All countries
Updated on July 7, 2022 3:33 am
All countries
Updated on July 7, 2022 3:33 am
All countries
Updated on July 7, 2022 3:33 am

Global Statistics

All countries
Updated on July 7, 2022 3:33 am
All countries
Updated on July 7, 2022 3:33 am
All countries
Updated on July 7, 2022 3:33 am
- Advertisment -

How Long Will Covid 19 Last

What Will Be The Impact Of Omicron Ba2

How long will coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis last? World-renowned expert offers perspective

The new BA.2 lineage that is now emerging as the dominant strain in Denmark has coincided with sort of a secondary increase in transmission in Denmark. There are really three explanations for this:

  • People who have had Omicron from the BA.1 lineage can somehow get infected from BA.2 this is possible but probably unlikely.

  • The mutations in the BA.2 lineage may mean that more people are susceptible to it than BA.1. In other words, the immune escape that we know is there about 50% for BA.1 from past infection with other variants may be even greater. That could create a new pool of susceptible individuals, and the same could be true for protection against infection through vaccination. Its interesting that in Denmark already, according to the seroprevalence reports, the rate of Omicron in the vaccinated is actually somewhat higher than in the unvaccinated. Its not probably statistically significant, or in other words, theyre about the same. It may also have something to do with who is out getting exposed and who is going to higher-risk settings.

  • The good news from Denmark on BA.2 is that theres no indication that its more severe. That could mean a bigger surge of Omicron than we thought, even more than half the population getting it, but probably isnt cause for alarm in the sense that it doesnt look to have enhanced severity.

    Challenges With Data Collection

    At IHME, with our projections, our major challenge in the coming months is the delay in reporting. Many countries and many states have moved to weekly reporting and it’s very hard for us to monitor the situation. The fact in the United States that many people are testing themselves at home and not reporting their infections to the local health departments is making it hard for us to follow the epi-curve.

    We are using admissions to hospitals, COVID-19 admissions, as our main indicator and some places like the United States, where we believe many people are testing themselves at home and not reporting those results to their local health department, we have lowered the infection-detection rate in order to make sure we’ll be able to monitor these trends.

    Projections And Recommendations For The United States

    We have increased our projections to September 1. Right now in the United States we are projecting 1.02 million deaths by September 1. That’s an additional 29,000 deaths from May 2, when we ran our programs.

    For the United States, the recommendations remain the same:

  • We need to continue our surveillance and make sure we are doing enough sequencing to know what variants are circulating in the United States, and if BA.4 and BA.5 are being introduced in the US and how fast they are spreading.
  • At the same time, we need to ensure that we have enough antiviral medications in order to distribute them. We know from their clinical trials that they reduce hospitalization and mortality, and they will reduce the pressures on our hospitals.
  • Third, which is very important, if we are seeing a rise due to another variant in the United States, we should go back to wearing masks and physical distancing.
  • In the United States we are seeing an increase in reported cases and hospitalizations. In some states, we are seeing the rate of increase in admissions to hospital is much higher than the rate of increase of reported cases. We believe that’s due to the fact that many people are testing themselves at home and not reporting to their counties and not using the local labs, so we are not capturing these cases.

    Recommended Reading: How Much Is A Cvs Covid Test

    How Should Schools Be Responding Now

    Given the high prevalence of Omicron during the surge phase, testing asymptomatic people will just yield more and more people who test positive but have no symptoms, and will lead to more people having to stay away from school and contacts of those people having to stay away from school. Given the very low risk of severe outcomes of Omicron, it seems unwise to test asymptomatic people. And then for symptomatic people of course, sick children should stay home and then return to school when theyre no longer symptomatic.

    I think we need to change our expectation: we are not in a situation where we can stop at the population level this wave of transmission. That means we therefore have to be focused on reducing harm, protecting individuals from severe disease or certainly from actually dying. A focus on harm reduction leads you to make different choices than trying to control transmission.

    How Long Can You Test Positive For Covid

    Chart: How Long Do Americans See COVID

    Most people will stop testing positive within 10 days of starting to experience symptoms, or receiving their first positive test.

    However, it is possible to continue testing positive for weeks or even months after having the virus.

    The good news is that even if you are continuing to test positive after a long time, it is highly unlikely you are actually contagious.

    The Gavi Vaccine Alliance explains: The time taken to test negative after contracting Covid-19 depends on the severity of the case, and also on the test itself.

    PCR tests that hunt out parts of viral genetic material in our bodies and amplify it so we can detect it are extremely sensitive and can even pick up the presence of few viral fragments.

    This is because fragments of viral RNA can remain in our bodies long after the infection is over and the virus has been cleared from our system.

    You May Like: How Much Is Rapid Test At Cvs

    If Youve Been Exposed Are Sick Or Are Caring For Someone With Covid

    If youve been exposed to someone with COVID-19 or begin to experience symptoms of the disease, you may be asked to self-quarantine or self-isolate. What does that entail, and what can you do to prepare yourself for an extended stay at home? How soon after youre infected will you start to be contagious? And what can you do to prevent others in your household from getting sick?

    Visit our Coronavirus Resource Center for more information on coronavirus and COVID-19.

    Is The Delta Variant Still Infecting People

    Where we have the genomic sequencing data the GSA database is what we largely use, supplemented by national databases Omicron in a 14-day period almost completely replaces Delta rapidly. We dont think Delta will be around because Omicron is so much more infectious and the neutralizing antibodies are giving us the indication that Omicron is providing good protection from Delta. So even if there are some Delta viruses in pockets circulating, we dont think itll come back as a Delta wave.

    Read Also: How Much Does Covid Testing Cost At Cvs

    What’s The Current Situation In Shanghai

    Shanghai local council announced on Monday that the city will “resume normalcy in June” – and that 15 out of 16 districts had achieved a “zero-Covid goal”.

    However, on the same day, Shanghai’s health authority recorded more than 800 new cases.

    On the ground, many people complain that restrictions are as tight as ever, and that they are still unable to leave home, even if the risk status of their area has changed.

    On Chinese social media, posts complaining about conditions – such as local merchants telling people not to make reservations because they are unable to work – have been censored.

    Many people worry that the de facto lockdown will last longer.

    How Likely Is Reinfection

    How Long Does COVID-19 Immunity Last?

    BA.4/BA.5 appear to be masters at evading immunity. This increases the chance of reinfection.

    Reinfection is defined as a new infection at least 12 weeks after the first. This gap is in place because many infected people still shed virus particles many weeks after recovery.

    However, some unfortunate people get a new infection within the 12 weeks, and therefore are not counted.

    Likely, there are now tens of thousands of Australians into their second or third infections, and this number will only get bigger with BA.4/5.

    Read Also: How Much For Covid Test At Cvs

    What About Coronavirus On My Food

    So far, theres no evidence showing you can catch COVID-19 from food. The virus is not like norovirus and hepatitis A, two foodborne stomach viruses. Regardless, the Food and Drug Administration recommends following food safety practices during the pandemic including these four key steps:

  • Clean the correct way

  • Always wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds before preparing or eating food.

  • Wash utensils, plates, cutting boards, and countertops with hot, soapy water.

  • Rinse fruit and vegetables before eating.

  • Wipe canned food lids before opening.

  • Dont mix raw meat, poultry, seafood, and eggs with other foods in your grocery cart, shopping bags, or refrigerator.

  • Dont reuse marinades you used on raw meats.

  • Dedicate one cutting board for raw foods only.

  • Cook to the safest temps with a meat thermometer

  • Beef, pork, lamb at 145°F

  • Fish at 145°F

  • Ground beef, pork, lamb at 160°F

  • Turkey, chicken, duck at 165°F

  • Chill food in the fridge ASAP

  • Place food in the fridge or freezer within 2 hours .

  • Thaw in the fridge, microwave, or under cold water.

  • Recommendations from public health experts change often as the pandemic continues to unfold and new studies get published. Stay informed by checking back with us often.

    Strict Measures Are Critical For Slowing The Spread Of The Disease

    Near the beginning of the pandemic, public health experts directed their efforts toward “flattening the curve.” If you mapped the number of COVID-19 cases over time, the expectation was that it would peak at some pointon a graph this peak would mirror a surge in patients . Flattening the curve would mean there would be fewer patients during that period, and hospitals would be better able to manage the demands of patients who are sick with COVID-19 and other illnesses.

    But last November/December as winter approached, a steady increase in cases in the U.S. was becoming what some described as a third wave , if not a continuation of a single wave that started in the spring and never stopped. As cold weather drove more people indoors, many government officials around the country halted some of the plans they had to reopen, implementing new restrictions that included curfews, limiting the number of people who could gather indoors, and establishing mask mandates.

    The idea is that if enough people are protected either because they have had the disease or theyve been vaccinated, herd immunity will start to protect even those people who have not been infected. While the timeline for herd immunity is still uncertain, researchers believe we will likely not reach it any time soon. And experts are concerned that outbreaks of the Omicron variant could affect overall progress.

    Recommended Reading: How Much Is Pcr Test At Cvs

    New Studies Show Limited Immunity From Omicron Infection

    One of the critical factors that do go into the long-range modeling, and even the short-range, is the extent to which Omicron infection provides protection against subsequent new variants, or even sub-variants of Omicron. There was a paper in Nature this week, which is a lab-based paper, based on the immune responses from serum from different types of patients, which suggests that there may be a limited cross-variant protection from Omicron infection.

    Read more in Nature »Limited cross-variant immunity from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron without vaccination

    We’ll really want to wait and see when studies are able to start reporting, from actual infection in individuals, what sort of cross-variant immunity there is. Both from vaccine-derived immunity and infection-acquired immunity, the available studies suggest much lower protection against Omicron infection, pretty good protection against severe disease and death, but greatly reduced for infection. We’ll have to wait and see whether that difference holds true for Omicron on Omicron by sub-variant, or even future variants, namely less protection against infection, but hopefully more protection against severe disease and death.

    What Should I Do To Manage My Symptoms

    How long can the COVID

    Professor Griffin encourages us to follow the same measures we use when recovering from colds and flus.

    “Get plenty of rest, keep your fluids up, and eat a good healthy, balanced diet,” he says.

    Medications such as paracetamol and ibuprofen can also help manage the worst pain and fevers but make sure you follow the directions and take the correct dose.

    Current guidelines say positive cases must spend seven days in isolation while they recover from COVID-19, which means you can focus on resting and recuperating .

    Read Also: Cvs Pcr Test For Travel Price

    When Can You Safely Go Out In Public

    The biggest risk of going out in public after having COVID-19 is transmitting the virus to others. If you follow the guidelines, however you can minimize the dangers.

    In most instances, contagiousness is negligible after 10 days, but this period may be more prolonged, e.g. two weeks or more, in those with an impaired immune system, says Dr. Bailey. If feasible, prolonging isolation for such people should be considered, perhaps to two or even three weeks, and they should be encouraged to wear a mask when they do venture out in public.

    Not everyone needs to be tested for COVID-19. People with mild illness can isolate and recover at home, But if you have symptoms and want to be tested, or if you’ve had close contact with someone with a confirmed case, by all means, find your local testing site.

    Should China Relax Its Restrictions And What Will Happen If It Does

    The big question with Omicron is what do zero-COVID countries, most importantly China, do? And it’s really quite a challenge because we worry most about people who are unvaccinated and never infected, so essentially there’s almost nobody in China who’s been infected, except a very small percentage of the population from the original outbreak. And you have quite high vaccination rates, but the vaccine isn’t particularly effective against Omicron. It’s much worse efficacy than say Pfizer or Moderna or AstraZeneca.

    The challenge that the Chinese government has is how to manage this situation. If there’s a strategy ahead where they can deliver a more effective vaccine booster to the over-65s and under-65s with comorbidities the vulnerable group or they can gain access to intellectual property around antivirals and start producing enough antivirals to start producing a big caseload, then that becomes a way out. You keep up with the rolling lockdowns in each place where an Omicron outbreak occurs until you’re ready with those other strategies. But if there isn’t going to be that strategy, then continuous rolling lockdown because we expect Omicron will just keep reemerging because it’s so infectious probably becomes infeasible.

    Recommended Reading: How Much Is A Rapid Test At Cvs

    What We Know About Immunity After Vaccination Booster Shots And Protection Against New Variants

    Save this to read later.

    Clinical trials and real-world conditions have proved that vaccines protect against COVID-19. But the question remains: How long will vaccine immunity last?

    In light of the Omicron variant now the most dominant variant in the United States the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention strongly recommends everyone 5 years and older get vaccinated. And if it has been five months since your last Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or two months since your Johnson & Johnson vaccine, getting a booster shot is recommended for those 12 and older.

    Dr. Sharon Chacko

    To learn more about this evolving issue, Health Matters spoke with Dr. Sharon Chacko, medical director of COVID-19 immunizations in the Division of Community and Population Health and an assistant professor of medicine at Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, about vaccine immunity and the recommendation for booster shots amid Omicron.

    With Omicron, many more people have experienced breakthrough infections. Does that mean vaccines arent working?While Omicron is more transmissible and is responsible for more breakthrough infections than any other variant, a breakthrough infection doesnt mean that the vaccine isnt working. In fact, for most people who are vaccinated and boosted, the symptoms are typically very mild. This emphasizes the importance of vaccination and boosters to prevent severe illness and hospitalizations.

    Chinese Population Remains Susceptible Relying On Zero

    How Long Does COVID-19 Immunity Last?

    At the global level, mortality from COVID-19 is the lowest since April 2020. The global trends are mainly dominated by what’s happening in China. Right now we are seeing a rise in cases in Taiwan. China is continuing with its zero-COVID policy and we feel that they will be able to control COVID-19 for a while. However, the economic pressure may not allow them to continue with such a policy.

    If what we are seeing happen right now in Taiwan, or what happened previously in Hong Kong, will happen in China, we project a lot of mortality, unfortunately, and the surge will overwhelm the hospitals. Many older Chinese people are not vaccinated at the same level as other countries, and also the vaccines used in China are less effective than the vaccines used elsewhere, mRNA vaccines. So we would expect a major surge and a rise in mortality in China.

    Recommended Reading: How Much Is Cvs Covid Testing

    The Duration Of Severe Coronavirus Infections

    For about one in five patients with coronavirus, the disease will progress and become worse. Symptoms in patients can get worse within days or even within hours. Severe symptoms can include a severe cough and shortness of breath combined with a fever of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. The virus can potentially enter the lungs and kill cells. To fight the virus, the immune system may start the process of inflammation, which can then result in severe forms of pneumonia.

    In about 14% of cases of COVID-19, symptoms become so severe that patients require supplemental oxygen. About six percent of cases become critical, which can lead to septic shock that can contribute to heart or respiratory failure, stroke, other organ failure, or death.

    People with severe cases of coronavirus may need to self-isolate for 20 days after symptoms first appeared. However, itâs not uncommon for recovery to take six or more weeks for severe cases.

    - Advertisment -

    Hot Topics

    - Advertisment -

    Related Articles