What Sort Mortality Data Do We Show On The Dashboard
The mortality rates that we show on the dashboard are:
The mortality rate based on reports to the GGDsThis is the number of deaths among patients with COVID-19 that are reported to the municipal health services each day. See article entitled Whats meant by number of reported deaths?
The mortality rate based on excess mortalityThis is the number of deaths that exceeds the projected number calculated by CBS. See the article entitled Whats meant by excess deaths?
Recovery After Severe Illness With Covid
A small percentage of people who have the new coronavirus need to stay in the hospital to get help breathing. It may depend on things like your age and your overall health. This might last 2 weeks or more.
If youre severely ill, you might need treatment in an intensive care unit . Many patients who spend time in the ICU lose weight and strength.
Your medical team will work with you to treat or manage these symptoms, including exercises to boost your strength.
Vaccine Inequity Causes Dangerous Divergence In Covid Survival Rates
The global rollout of COVID-19 vaccines is progressing at two alarmingly different speeds, UN agency leaders said in a statement on Friday, noting that less than two per cent of adults are fully vaccinated in most low-income countries compared to almost 50 per cent in high-income nations.;
The heads of the International Monetary Fund , World Bank, World Health Organization and World Trade Organization met with the leaders of the African Vaccine Acquisition Trust , Africa CDC, Gavi and UNICEF to rapidly scale-up vaccines in low- and lower middle-income countries, particularly in Africa.
Less than 2% of adults are fully vaccinated in most low-income countries compared to almost 50% in high income countries. This crisis of vaccine inequity is driving a dangerous divergence in #COVID19 survival rates and in the global economy.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
These countries, the majority of which are in Africa, simply cannot access sufficient vaccine to meet even the global goals of 10 per cent coverage in all countries by September and 40 per cent by end 2021, let alone the African Unions goal of 70 per cent in 2022, the UN officials said.
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Stopping The Spread Can Improve Outcomes
Yumou Qiu, assistant professor of statistics at Iowa State University, helped develop a model measuring the rate of spread around the globe. He found that once social distancing efforts took hold, the number of people each carrier infected started to drop. The United States reached its peak rate of spread, about 4.4 new people infected per carrier, on about March 11. It is now at about 0.98, meaning the spread is slowing.
He also tracked death rates and found that countries where the health care system was overwhelmed, such as Italy, experienced a spike in that metric. He referenced flattening the curve, or slowing the spread of the disease so it never creates a peak medical need thats higher than the countrys capacity to deliver care.
varies country to country, Qiu said. Thats why epidemiological experts say to flatten the curve. If we dont control the curve, then we can overwhelm the health care system.
Mortality Rate Showing Cause Of Death Not On Dashboard
We do not show the mortality rate based on cause of death on the dashboard because we only use data from the recent past, that is, data that we receive per day or week. This data is necessary to follow the epidemic closely and to be able to take timely measures. However, we think it is important to mention the mortality rate based on cause of death, because these are the most accurate figures.
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The Vaccines Have Been Tested For Safety
Its not clear exactly what the post means by experimental.
At the time of writing, the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines have been approved for use in the UK and are being rolled out. The Moderna vaccine has been approved, and is expected to be rolled out in the spring.
Vaccines undergo multiple trials, increasing in scale, to check whether they work and if they are safe. The final trial before launch is the phase three trial where the vaccine is given to tens of thousands of people. All threevaccines were shown to be safe in these trials.
The vaccines were approved using rapid temporary regulatory approvals, but this doesnt mean theyre untested or experimental.
Members of the public being given the vaccine as part of the national vaccine roll-out are not participating in an experiment and are not part of ongoing trials, although the authorities will continue to monitor the safety of the vaccines.
This monitoring happens with all vaccines, including those that have been in use for years, to detect any adverse effects.;;
How You Might Feel While Recovering
Not everyone who catches SARS-CoV-2 will notice symptoms. If you do get them, they may show up 2 to 14 days after your infection. And those symptoms can vary from one person to the next.
One of the most common signs is a fever, which for most adults is 100.4 F or higher. It means your body is trying to fight off an invader.
Some people who had COVID-19 said they had trouble taking deep breaths and felt like they had a tight band wrapped around their chest. Others have likened the illness to a bad cold. Still others said it was the sickest theyve ever felt.
Loss of smell and taste have been reported in many cases. Some patients have skin rashes and darkened toes, called COVID toes.
You might feel short of breath, as if youd just run to grab a ringing phone. If so, call your doctor to ask about what you should do.
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In The Second Wave Covid
COVID-19 mortality for people younger than 65 varied significantly between local areas. Figure 3 shows COVID-19 mortality rates for people younger than 65 by local authority. This highlights differences in the experience of COVID-19 in more urban regions compared with rural areas. There were particularly high COVID-19 mortality rates for people younger than 65 in London and some authorities in the South East , as well as in Greater Manchester and Birmingham.
Herd Immunity And Final Crude Mortality Rate
Crude mortality rate is not really applicable during an ongoing epidemic.
And to reach herd immunity for COVID-19 and effectively end the epidemic, approximately two thirds of the population would need to be infected. As of May 1, New York City is at 20%, based on the antibody study findings.
Therefore, the crude mortality rate has the potential to more than triple from our current estimate, reaching close to 1,000 deaths per 100,000 population , and close to 300 per 100,000 in the population under 65 years old, with 89% of these deaths occurring in people with a known underlying medical condition .
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Survival Rates Are Hard To Estimate
In a pandemic, its difficult to nail down data points like survival rates, Prins told PolitiFact. Such rates are usually calculated for a longer period of time rather than as a snapshot.
“Deaths and reporting of deaths lag behind the identification of new cases, sometimes for months, so we never quite catch up with knowing who has survived unless we set a time period that were looking at, like we do with five-year survival rates in cancers, or the disease goes away and we can look back at the pandemic as a whole,” Prins said.
“In addition, we know that there are side effects of COVID-19 like myocarditis that may show up well after recovery but could cause death at that later time, so both survival rates and mortality rates are more accurate after some time has passed.”
A widespread vaccination effort would prevent more deaths, protect people from severe illness, slow the spread and put the U.S. on a path back to normal.
How Effective Is The Pfizer Vaccine
The reported effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine is also potentially subject to change.
The Pfizer vaccine is currently reported to be at least 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 infection, meaning that people in the trial who had been given the vaccine were 90% less likely to get Covid-19 than those who didnt get the vaccine. The trial isnt yet complete, however, so this could change as the study goes on and more participants catch Covid-19.
But this is talking about how many people get infected, not how many people die. Comparing this to the fatality rate for the disease is comparing two entirely different things.
Its not yet clear whether any vaccine, in addition to reducing the chance of infection, would also reduce the chance of severe symptoms or death among those who do get infected.;
Correction 19 November 2020
Correction: This article initially used figures for the number of people who died where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate in any capacity, when we meant to use the figure for the number of people who died where Covid-19 was noted as the underlying cause of death.
Correction 31 March 2021
We corrected errors in the description of the recovery rate set out in the social media posts.
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Covid Insights Upped Hospital Survival Rates
The likelihood of people surviving Covid-19 in UK hospitals improved as understanding of the disease increased, research shows.
Deaths among hospitalised Covid patients dropped from 32 per cent at the start of the pandemic in March and April 2020 to 16 per cent by the end of the first wave last summer.
Analysis of some 64,000 adults in nearly 250 hospitals found a drop in deaths for all age groups, all ethnicities, for both sexes and in patients with and without underlying conditions.
Researchers found the reduction was associated with adoption of steroids as a newly proven treatment, and improvements in breathing support techniques and critical care. The team says the change was, in part, a reflection of improved clinical knowledge.
The risk of death for people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 was extremely high at around one in three at the start of the first wave, and consistently improved over subsequent months.;Part of this improvement can be explained by differences in the people who were admitted to hospital, and how sick they were.;Further reduction in the risk of death can be explained by improvements in care of Covid-19 patients with treatments and better use of advanced respiratory support.
Dr Annemarie DochertySenior Clinical Lecturer at the University of Edinburgh
What Is The Fatality Rate
Because many mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 infections go unreported, it is thought the case fatality ratio is lower than 2%, possibly somewhere between 0.5% and 1%; but that would still mean that COVID-19 is many more times deadly than the flu, and very dangerous.
“In the United States, COVID-19 now kills about 0.6% of people infected with the virus, compared with around 0.9% early in the pandemic.”
For the most recent counts of confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries, visit this dashboard.
Stay up to date with the latest COVID-19 news and updates from the State of New Jersey.
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Estimation Of Excess Mortality Due To Covid
In the IHME estimation of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to date, we have used officially reported COVID-19 deaths for nearly all locations. Since the release on May 6,;2021, we have incorporated an approach that relies on the estimation of excess mortality due to COVID-19. There are several reasons that have led us to include this approach. These reasons include the fact that testing capacity varies markedly across countries and within countries over time, which means that the reported COVID-19 deaths as a proportion of all deaths due to COVID-19 also vary markedly across countries and within countries over time. In addition, in many high-income countries, deaths from COVID-19 in older individuals, especially in long-term care facilities, went unrecorded in the first few months of the pandemic. In other countries, such as Ecuador, Peru, and the Russian Federation, the discrepancy between reported deaths and analyses of death rates compared to expected death rates, sometimes referred to as excess mortality, suggests that the total COVID-19 death rate is many multiples larger than official reports. Estimating the excess COVID-19 death rate is important both for modeling the transmission dynamics of the disease to make better forecasts, and also for understanding the drivers of larger and smaller epidemics across different countries.
Figure 1. New model for the estimation of expected mortality
Figure 2. Estimation of excess mortality, an ensemble approach
The Viruss Survival Rate Is Lower Than 998% In The Uk
Covid-19 is far more dangerous for older people than younger people. Therefore in countries with older populations, the virus will be more deadly and have a lower survival rate than countries with younger populations.
Weve about how European estimates put the fatality rate at somewhere between 0.5% and 1%, meaning the survival rate could be somewhere between 99% and 99.5%, but not as high as 99.8%.
Precise estimates for the UK are difficult to make, because we dont know how many people have caught Covid, and therefore what proportion have survived.
However, we can be almost certain that the survival rate here is not as high as 99.8%, because of the sheer number of people who have already died.;
If only 0.2% of people die from Covid-19 after catching it , then virtually everyone in the country must have already been infected. This is almost certainly not the case, because the disease is still spreading between susceptible people, more people are still dying, and population surveys have not shown high enough rates of infection. .
Even assuming many people were infected during the first spring wave, its implausible that everyone has already been infected.;
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Cases Reported Since The Start Of The Vaccination Campaign As Of July 03 2021
Since the start of the vaccination campaign on December 14, 2020, PHAC received case-level vaccine history data for 75.5% of COVID-19 cases aged 12 years or older.
Of these cases:
- were unvaccinated at the time of their episode date
- were not yet protected by the vaccine, as their episode date occurred less than 14 days after their first dose
- were only partially vaccinated, as their episode date occurred either 14 days or more after their first dose or less than 14 days after their second dose
- were fully vaccinated, as their episode date occurred 14 days or more after their second dose
Days From First Symptom To Death
The Wang et al. February 7 study published on JAMA found that the median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days.
Previously. the China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above than those with ages below 70 year old (20 days.
Median Hospital Stay
The JANA study found that, among those discharged alive, the median hospital stay was 10 days.
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Mortality Rate By Age
When analyzing the breakdown of deaths by age and condition , we can observe how, out of 15,230 confirmed deaths in New York City up to May 12, only 690 occurred in patients under the age of 65 who did not have an underlying medical condition .
Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, GI/Liver Disease, and Obesity
85.9% of the population in New York City is under 65 years old according to the US Census Bureau, which indicates the percent of persons 65 years old and over in New York City as being 14.1% .
We don’t know what percentage of the population in this age group has an underlying condition, so at this time we are not able to accurately estimate the fatality rate for the under 65 years old and healthy.
But we can calculate it for the entire population under 65 years old : with 6,188 deaths occurring in this age group, of which 5,498 deaths in patients with a known underlying condition, the crude mortality rate to date will correspond to 6,188 / 7,214,525 = 0.09% CMR, or 86 deaths per 100,000 population .
So far there has been 1 death every 1,166 people under 65 years old . And 89% of the times, the person who died had one or more underlying medical conditions.
NOTE: We are gathering and analyzing additional data in order to provide more estimates by age group.