Global Statistics

All countries
Updated on June 22, 2022 7:24 pm
All countries
Updated on June 22, 2022 7:24 pm
All countries
Updated on June 22, 2022 7:24 pm

Global Statistics

All countries
Updated on June 22, 2022 7:24 pm
All countries
Updated on June 22, 2022 7:24 pm
All countries
Updated on June 22, 2022 7:24 pm
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When Will The Covid 19 End

Where Do Diseases Go

When Will the COVID-19 Pandemic End?

When the worldwide spread of a disease is brought under control in a localized area, its no longer a pandemic but an epidemic, according to the WHO. If COVID-19 persists globally at what the WHO judges to be expected or normal levels, the organization will then re-designate the disease endemic.

At that stage, SARS-CoV-2 will become a circulating virus thats less consequential as we build immunity, says Saad Omer, an epidemiologist and director of the Yale Institute for Global Health.

Only two diseases in recorded history that affect humans or other animals have ever been eradicated: smallpox, a life-threatening disease for people that covers bodies in painful blisters, and rinderpest, a viral malady that infected and killed cattle. In both instances, intensive global vaccination campaigns brought new infections to a halt. The last confirmed case of rinderpest was detected in Kenya in 2001, while the last known smallpox case occurred in the U.K. in 1978.

Joshua Epstein, professor of epidemiology in the New York University School of Global Public Health and founding director of its Agent-Based Modeling Laboratory, argues that eradication is so rare that the word should be wiped from our disease vocabulary. Diseases retreat to their animal reservoirs, or they mutate at low levels, he says. But they dont typically literally disappear from the global biome.

Probability Of ‘super Variant’

Brilliant said his models on the Covid outbreak in San Francisco and New York predict an “inverted V-shape epidemic curve.” That implies that infections increase very quickly, but would also decline rapidly, he explained.

If the prediction turns out be true, it means that the delta variant spreads so quickly that “it basically runs out of candidates” to infect, explained Brilliant. ;

There appears to be a similar pattern in the U.K. and India, where the spread of the delta variant has receded from recent highs.

But I do caution people that this is the delta variant and we have not run out of Greek letters so there may be more to come.Larry BrilliantEpidemiologist

Daily reported cases in the U.K. on a seven-day moving average basis fell from a peak of around 47,700 cases on July 21 to around 26,000 cases on Thursday, according to statistics compiled by online database Our World in Data.

In India, the seven-day moving average of daily reported cases has stayed below 50,000 since late June far below the peak of more than 390,000 a day in May, the data showed.

“That may mean that this is a six-month phenomenon in a country, rather than a two-year phenomenon. But I do caution people that this is the delta variant and we have not run out of Greek letters so there may be more to come,” he said.

When Will The Coronavirus Pandemic End

It’s impossible to say with any degree of certainty just how long the COVID-19pandemic that took the world by storm in early 2020 will last.;

There are two ways to describe an ‘end’ to a plague. One is elimination, which is a reduction of new cases to a suitably low number . The other is eradication – a clear, permanent, and complete wiping out of an infectious agent.

While much has been learned about the virus‘s ability to spread between people, infect cells, and put infected people at risk of a range of major health problems, estimating its duration in a global population depends on how we all behave, which can be much harder to model.;

Much as predictions on climate change vary depending on how we act now, it might be possible to propose scenarios that similarly forecast the different futures facing us.

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Are We At The Beginning Of The End Of Covid

As many as 1 in 5 Americans may have been infected with the coronavirus, and millions more have been vaccinated. But scientists say a return to normal is months away.

    One year into a changed world, the numbers defy comprehension. More than 21 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States a rate approaching one in 15 people plus untold millions who had mild or no symptoms and were never identified. Add the millions who have received their first doses of vaccine, and it is fair to wonder:

    Can we start to look forward to when life returns to normal?

    The answer hinges on that often-misunderstood concept of herd immunity, made all the more complicated by the emergence of two variants of the coronavirus that seem to spread more rapidly, one of which is already in the United States. Evidence so far suggests that the new mutations will have little, if any, impact on how well the vaccines work, and they do not seem to result in a more severe illness.

    Yet given the wintertime surge in cases possibly aggravated by the new mutations and the question of how long immunity lasts, public health experts say this is no time to relax precautions.

    For a reality check on how far weve come, we spoke to three researchers who study the spread of infectious disease: Temple University epidemiologist Abby Rudolph, Drew University biologist Brianne Barker, and Pennsylvania State University biologist Maciej Boni.

    Hiv Attacks The Human Immune System

    NSW recorded no new locally acquired cases of COVID

    HIV could be regarded as an “worst case scenario virus”, says Prof Riley, because of the length of time it takes to develop symptoms and its high fatality rate. It spreads fast because people don’t necessarily know they have it.

    However, advances in diagnostic techniques and global public health campaigns – which have changed sexual behaviour and increased the availability of safe injections for drug users – have helped slow the growth in infections.

    Despite this, an estimated 690,000 people died from Aids in 2019, according to WHO figures.

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    Delta Is Now The Dominant Coronavirus Variant In The Us

    Lynn Goldman, an epidemiologist and the dean of the school of public health at George Washington University, says the U.S. has certain things working for it and some against it.

    The good news is we’ve shown the ability to lower rates of transmission and deaths from the virus. And of course, Americans have widespread access to COVID-19 vaccines.

    The bad news is there’s resistance to the two main ways to prevent transmission getting vaccinated and wearing a mask.

    Lessons From The Spanish Flu

    During the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the disease hit the global community in waves. The first wave in the spring of 1918 was not unlike what you would expect of annual influenza, with similar rates of infection and death. By August of that year, a second, deadlier wave struck, following World War I troop movements across Europe, Russia, Asia, Africa, Australia, and the Americas. After the premature lifting of national quarantines in January 1919, a third wave hit. Health officials declared control in December 1920.

    The Spanish flu is believed to have been caused by sudden mutations of the H1N1 virus, which some say occurred between the first and second waves, likely in the United States. The eventual disappearance of Spanish flu may be the result of mutations that weakened the virus but are more likely due to adaptive herd immunization in which exposure to the virus provided immunity to large sectors of the population.

    Adaptive immunity is a type of immunity that develops in response to an infection. After an infection has been cleared, the body will leave behind immune cells that watch for the return of the disease and act quickly when it does. Herd immunity applies this adaptive immunity to a group of people.

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    How Long Immunity From Vaccine Will Last

    Second, according to the CDC, there are currently three authorized vaccines on the market in the U.S. – manufactured by Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson. While Pfizer and Moderna have been reported to have a 95% effectiveness, we still need to see how long the immunity effect will last after a large percentage of the population is vaccinated.;

    The Biden Administration recently announced a booster shot plan to provide third doses of an mRNA vaccine to Americans. The rationale is that a third shot would elicit a strong secondary immune response against COVID-19 infection. Several studies are currently being conducted to determine the length of immunity from the initial doses.

    How Do Pandemics End


    We are in the grip of a pandemic like none other in living memory. While people are pinning their hopes on a vaccine to wipe it out, the fact is most of the infections faced by our ancestors are still with us.

    Scroll down to find out how some of those pandemics came to an end, giving us clues as to how our future may unfold.

    Just like us, her ancestors survived a number of pandemics.

    Take a journey back in time to see what diseases they faced.

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    We Dont Yet Know How Much Covid

    The problem is theres no agreement, including among experts, on Covid-19 risk. Some have accepted merely reducing the coronaviruss strain on hospitals as the major policy goal. Theres next to no confidence that anything like Covid zero can be achieved now, but other experts still prefer harsher restrictions if it means preventing more deaths. And many people fall in between.

    Its this debate, between flatten the curve and Covid zero, thats long divided the USs Covid-19 response. Red states hewed at least for a while to flatten the curve, moving to lift Covid-related restrictions and reopen their economies as soon as hospitals stabilized. Blue states never truly pushed for Covid zero, but they were generally much less willing to tolerate high levels of cases and deaths and, as a result, shut down more quickly in response to even hints of major surges.

    Even with the vaccines, this division, among both policymakers and the public they serve, has kept America in limbo.

    Part of the divide is on a philosophical question about the role of government. But its about individuals decisions, too: Are they willing to forgo social activities, government mandate or not, to reduce deaths? Are they willing to keep wearing masks? Submit to continued testing in all sorts of settings?

    Are as many as 60,000 deaths a year too many? Thats what Americans have tolerated for the flu.

    Fda Panel Greenlights Pfizer Boosters For High

    A Food and Drug Administration advisory panel recommended that Pfizer-BioNTech boosters be made available to people 65 and older and those at high risk of severe Covid, but voted against giving blanket boosters to people 16 and older.

    This is the voting question No. 2 that we will ask the committee to consider: Based on the totality of scientific evidence available, including the safety and effectiveness data from Clinical Trial C4591001: Do the known and potential benefits outweigh the known and potential risks of a Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine booster dose administered at least six months after completion of the primary series for use in individual 65 years of age and older, and individuals at high risk of severe Covid-19? We do have a unanimous 18 out of 18 who voted yes for this question.

    A key advisory panel to the Food and Drug Administration overwhelmingly rejected recommending Pfizer booster shots for most recipients of the companys coronavirus vaccine, instead endorsing them only for people who are 65 or older or at high risk of severe Covid-19.

    The vote the first on boosters in the United States was a blow to the Biden administrations strategy to make extra shots available to most fully vaccinated adults in the United States eight months after they received a second dose. The broader rollout was to start next week.

    Apoorva Mandavilli andSheryl Gay Stolberg contributed reporting.

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    The Sars Coronavirus Was Identified In 2003

    But by late July 2003, no new cases were being reported, and the WHO declared the global outbreak to be over.

    A little later came Middle East Respiratory Syndrome , also a coronavirus, which has killed 912 people. Most cases have occurred in the Arabian Peninsula.

    While the risk of contracting the virus, known as Mers-CoV, in the UK, for example, is regarded as very low, it remains higher in the Middle East – with humans usually infected by camels.

    Herd Immunity = As Most Of The Population Is Immune To The Infection They Provide Indirect Protection To Not Immune Individuals

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    Additionally, the high transmission rate of the virus leads to the emergence of new strains. One vaccine is effective only against one strain. Therefore, it is also important to be quick in modifying the vaccines by the occurrence of new strains. In a nutshell, the vaccination and its adaptation to the mutated strains our only hope for ending the pandemic.

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    Bill Gates Has Other Data And Proposes The ‘only Solution’ To The Coronavirus

    Microsoft’s billionaire founder Bill Gates has distinguished himself in recent months by making various predictions around the SARS-CoV-2 virus . He even said that , something that obviously did not happen.

    In a report published last Monday by the Gates Foundation , the tycoon reiterated that “the end has not yet come” and ventured to propose a solution to this pandemic and those to come.

    “The only real solution to this problem is to have factories that can produce enough doses of vaccines for everyone in 100 days. It is feasible,” Gates said.

    In this sense, Gates assures that “the most vulnerable have been the most affected and will probably be the slowest to recover .”

    This statement is confirmed by the WHO data, since just last September 14 its director indicated that, of the total vaccines administered worldwide, Africa has only received 2% .

    #Traveling in the new normal implies new essential requirements to travel without problems. Take these items into account when packing.

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    As for economic recovery , the report details that it is “uneven” between and within countries. As a result, 700 million people in low- and middle-income countries are expected to fall into extreme poverty by 2030. In addition, recovery is expected to be much slower in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East.

    The Number Of People Who Receive The Covid

    According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , the number one factor that will determine how quickly we can put an end to the pandemic is the number of people who will be willing to get the vaccine. It is suggested that if we can get 75-85% of the population vaccinated, the COVID-19 pandemic will be functionally over.;

    Teenagers and young adults or adolescents down to the age of 12 now have access to the vaccine. According to a recent study conducted by the New York Times, epidemiologists believe the true end of the pandemic is not possible until the vaccine is available to all Americans, including those younger than 12 years of age.;

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    Were Looking For A Balancing Act Not A Total End To Covid

    If there is one point of agreement among most experts, its that Covid-19 is here to stay. Until very recently, I was hopeful that there was a possibility of getting to a point where we had no more Covid, Eleanor Murray, an epidemiologist at Boston University, told me. Now she believes that it is infeasible, in the short term, to aim for an eradication goal.

    Particularly with the rise of the delta variant, a consensus has formed that the coronavirus likely cant be eliminated. Like the flu, a rapidly shapeshifting coronavirus will continue to stick around in some version for years to come, with new variants leading to new spikes in infections. Especially as it becomes unlikely that 100 percent of the population will get vaccinated, and as it becomes clear that the vaccines provide great but not perfect protection, the virus is probably always going to be with us in some form, both in America and abroad.

    That doesnt mean the US has to accept hundreds of thousands of deaths annually in the coming years. While the vaccines have struggled at least somewhat in preventing any kind of infection , they have held up in preventing severe illness, hospitalization, and death reducing the risk of each by roughly 90 percent, compared to no vaccine. Research has also found stricter restrictions reduce Covid-19 spread and death, and that masks work.

    Thats the goal, in my mind: to eliminate or reduce social distancing, Jha said.

    How Will The Pandemic End The Science Of Past Outbreaks Offers Clues

    COVID-19: IMF pitches $50BN plan to end coronavirus

    The answer depends on many factors, perhaps the most critical being the global nature of the crisis.

    After months of encouraging trendlines, Julys dramatic spike in global COVID-19 infections has dimmed the proverbial light at the end of the pandemic tunnel.

    In May, coronavirus cases were declining across the U.S., parts of Europe, and the Middle East;as vaccination rates rose, spurring an easing of social and travel restrictions and a wave of business reopenings. But in the U.S., at least, any celebration was short-lived. By July, vaccination rates flatlined and highly transmissible coronavirus variants swept the nation, forcing health officials to reimpose masking recommendations and call for increased inoculations.

    The World Health Organization COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. After 17 grueling and chaotic months, weary people are wondering: When will;the pandemic finally end?

    Even among the scientific community, you would get really different answers, says Rachael Piltch-Loeb, a researcher and fellow with the Emergency Preparedness Research, Evaluation & Practice Program at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. There is no one definition of what the end of a pandemic means.

    A pandemic is by definition a global crisis. Lifting some U.S. public health measures and interventions gave people a sense that the panic was waning, Piltch-Loeb says. That euphoria blinded many to the worldwide reality, which remains bleak.

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