Is The Homegrown Double Mutant B1617 Responsible For The Surge
This second wave in India has been widely attributed to the B.1.1.7 variantfirst identified in the U.K.which had ramped up cases in the state of Punjab. Another possible culprit is a homegrown variant, called B.1.617, with two worrying mutations, that originated in Maharashtra, the worst affected state.
This variant, B.1.617, is also believed to be triggering new surges in Bangladesh and Pakistan and led many countries, including the U.S., Canada, and the U.K., to advise citizens against traveling to the region.
The University of Washingtons IHME says seroprevalence surveys, which measure the percentage of people in a population who have antibodies against the SARS-CoV 2 virus, and their own modeling strongly suggests that the new surge is linked to escape variants which can override immunity afforded by previous infection. Vaccines, too, are less effective against these variants. However, experiments completed at Mishras institute on April 22 found that the B.1.617 was not resistant to the protection offered by Covishield , one of the vaccines in India’s inoculation program.
A bigger second wave is a global, historical trend of this infection, says epidemiologist Rajib Dasgupta, chairperson of the Centre of Social Medicine & Community Health at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. Once a new variant is identified, he adds, its epidemiology must be investigated and key resources moved to affected areas to strengthen capabilities.
Could A Third Wave Of Covid Be More Serious Than Uks First Two
Analysis: Concern over Delta variant means decision on ending restrictions on 21 June hangs in balance
Summer has nearly arrived and the UK is beginning to unlock from coronavirus restrictions, with a full lifting still on the cards in England on 21 June.
Yet the spectre of the Delta variant is casting an ominous shadow, with concerns it could fuel a third wave. So just how serious could the next peak be and could it be more serious than Britains first two waves?
In May members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling from the University of Warwick released results from models that suggested a variant 40% more transmissible than the Alpha variant first detected in Kent and known as B.1.1.7 could result in up to 6,000 hospital admissions a day.
This rises to 10,000 admissions a day if the variant is 50% more transmissible assuming full relaxation went ahead. Both of those peaks would far exceed those in previous waves, which peaked at more than 4,000 people admitted to hospital in a single day and left the NHS at risk of being overwhelmed.
The Spi-M projections matter because the Delta variant, first discovered in India and also known as B.1.617.2, is believed to be more transmissible than the Alpha variant though by how much remains unclear.
Those uncertainties make it hard to put exact figures on just how bad a third wave could be.
Australia The First True Winter Wave
The city of Melbourne has now gone into a fresh six-week lockdown after a spike of coronavirus cases, with a further 191 infections reported on Tuesday.
Australia had been hailed as a global success story in suppressing the spread of Covid-19 and even at the height of the initial outbreak it only reported a little over 600 cases a day.
The virus did not take hold at first because of quick shutdown measures, including border closures and the mandatory quarantining of travellers. By the end of May the country was reporting just a handful of new infections every day.
However, since the end of June the number of cases has started to rise in Melbourne, in the southern state of Victoria where it is now winter. As the chart shows, the area is now suffering a peak that is worse than its first.
Professor Raina MacIntyre, an expert in influenza and emerging infectious diseases at the University of South New Wales, said the situation was more serious than in late March.
It is possible there has been seeding of infection to other states, and silent epidemic growth which has not yet been detected. I would not be surprised to see epidemics detected in New South Wales and other states within the next few weeks, she said.
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What Is A Wave Will We See Another One During The Summer
Jonathan Fielding, MD, MPH, a professor of health policy and management at UCLA and the former public health director of Los Angeles County, tells Good Housekeeping that certain cities, states, and regions show variability in new cases that makes it hard to understand what a “wave” is. The idea of a wave comes from the curve on a graph that illustrates how many cases there are during an outbreak the curve looks like a wave if more and more people become sick .
A second wave would indicate that there was a lull in activity for all 50 states, but states that are experiencing an upward swing in new cases may be just “lagging behind” the states that are now reporting downtrends, Dr. Beri-Stoji says. There hasn’t been enough of a drop off in new cases to allow for a second wave to start it seems that states are going through a delayed chain of spikes in new cases. These new cases could be these states’ first wave compared to places like New York and California. “You should expect continued increase in some, but not all, states,” Dr. Fielding adds. “There are some disturbing examples of increases associated with loosening requirements for protective behavior, but the public desire for the ‘old normal’ is swamping common sense in some individuals.”
Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations rose by 421 in past day, an 8.2% increase Not good
With Testing Treatments And Vaccine Trials Ramping Up We Are Far Better Off Than The Media Report
Derek Washington, a nurse, stands in front of a flag outside his hospital in Long Island, N.Y., May 12.
In recent days, the media has taken to sounding the alarm bells over a second wave of coronavirus infections. Such panic is overblown. Thanks to the leadership of President Trump and the courage and compassion of the American people, our public health system is far stronger than it was four months ago, and we are winning the fight against the invisible enemy.
While talk of an increase in cases dominates cable news coverage, more than half of states are actually seeing cases decline or remain stable. Every state, territory and major metropolitan area, with the exception of three, have positive test rates under 10%. And in the six states that have reached more than 1,000 new cases a day, increased testing has allowed public health officials to identify most of the outbreaks in particular settingsprisons, nursing homes and meatpacking facilitiesand contain them.
Lost in the coverage is the fact that today less than 6% of Americans tested each week are found to have the virus. Cases have stabilized over the past two weeks, with the daily average case rate across the U.S. dropping to 20,000down from 30,000 in April and 25,000 in May. And in the past five days, deaths are down to fewer than 750 a day, a dramatic decline from 2,500 a day a few weeks agoand a far cry from the 5,000 a day that some were predicting.
Mr. Pence is vice president of the United States.
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Can A Second Wave Be Prevented
While both Hoffman and Bogoch are confident a second wave will likely hit Canada, they both said the severity of that surge can be mitigated with the proper response.
Bogoch cited South Korea as an example of a country that had a dramatic spike in cases early on, but they were able to largely suppress it through the extensive use of testing, isolating, and contact tracing.
When cases numbers began to creep back up again in June, South Korea halted further relaxation measures and relied on a program of aggressive tracking, tracing, and testing for the virus to bring the numbers down again in what the government described as the countrys second wave.
Bogoch said that type of speedy reaction will be needed to tamp down on localized outbreaks if Canada wants to prevent a wave of new infections.
Its like a game of Whac-A-Mole, he said. Infections are going to pop up and were going to have to smack them down and the key thing is we have to rapidly identify them and quell those outbreaks as quickly as possible before they morph into larger outbreaks.
Hoffman said, without the development of a vaccine or treatment for COVID-19 or a scenario where everyone contracts the virus and there is herd immunity, Canadians will have to continue to physically distance from each other, wear masks, and practice good hygiene to avoid devastating second, third, or even fourth waves of infection.
Can There Be *more* Waves
While theres been a big focus on the second wave, theres no limit to the number of waves we can experience with COVID-19. Unfortunately, waves will likely continue until either there is an effective vaccine or at least 70 percent of the population becomes infected, Dr. Watkins says. Some models suggest COVID-19 might be around for a few more years. Its honestly impossible to say for sure right now.
Technically, the flu keeps having new waves each fall and winter, Dr. Schaffner points out, and its possible things might get to the same point with COVID-19. “But, if we had to bet, thats where wed put our dollar,” he says. “The hope is that we will get at least a partially effective vaccine thats safe that we can employ widely.”
The race for a vaccine has had starts and stops, with some major trials, like those run by Johnson & Johnson and Merck, halting due to an unexplained, serious illness in a trial participant. Currently, there are 11 vaccines in Phase Three of clinical trials, according to The New York Times vaccine tracker. Its hard to say what will happen next with vaccine development for COVID-19, but many experts are working diligently to get a safe, reliable vaccine to the public ASAP.
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Will States Close Again
Another unclear question that will largely depend on the actions of leadership, Dr. Fielding says. “For me, the distinction between waves isn’t really helpful the tough question is when, if ever, those in authority should reinstate some behavioral constraints?” he asks. “It may make sense, but it’s hard for political leaders to backtrack.” According to information curated by the New York Times, four states have already rolled back reopening measures and 10 others have paused plans to reopen all non-essential businesses with varying restrictions. You can see local reports for how governors are handling reopening issues in your state using the Times‘ interactive map here.
Arizona’s Governor Doug Ducey closed more than just bars an executive order also mandated that gyms, movie theaters, and water parks once again shut their doors to the public, according to the Arizona Republic.Arizona’s reversal might be the nation’s most sweeping so far, but what’s more compelling is that many other states have halted their reopening procedures. Maine recently extended closures for indoor bar service, and many other states are currently considering future implications, according to the Washington Post.
Why A 4th Covid
With more people vaccinated, a fourth COVID-19 wave could look different.
World Health Organization addresses rise in global COVID-19 cases
As coronavirus cases and hospitalizations creep up across the country, health officials are continuing to urge caution, warning that despite the acceleration in the pace of vaccinations, the nation could face a potential fourth wave of COVID-19 infections, if Americans let their guards down too rapidly.
With 71.8% of Americans 65 and older inoculated with at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, a fourth wave could look different than those the country has previously experienced, characterized by fewer hospitalizations and deaths, according to experts.
“We have to begin to re-think how COVID case data is interpreted,” said Dr. John Brownstein, chief innovation officer at Boston Children’s Hospital and an ABC News contributor. “With rapid dissemination of the vaccines, increases in cases among healthy populations will not necessarily translate to hospitalizations and deaths as previously seen during the pandemic.”
At a White House briefing earlier this week, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , said that she is concerned the U.S. could see “another avoidable surge” in COVID-19 cases if mitigation measures — such as testing, mask-wearing, social distancing, hand-washing and avoiding crowds — are not observed.
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Fall Will Be Difficult
Lipsitch said that despite hopes that summer will bring continued relief from the spread of the virus, fall will be very much like the spring, and the usual pattern of coronaviruses is likely continue with new transmission peaking in November and cases peaking in December.
We will have a harder time controlling coronavirus in the fall … and we will all be very tired of social distancing and other tactics. The hard thing will be to keep enough of it to protect our ICUs and keep the number of cases from flaring up, he said.
Controlling the virus may call for a return to the tactics that have worked in spring and a continued focus on maintaining resources such as personal protective equipment and increasing viral testing.
Lipsitch also pointed to the social stresses of COVID-19 mitigation and said he would put more resources to mitigating the social effects of these countermeasures. In addition to improving testing and medical surveillance, he would put additional resources to making sure people have enough to eat, making sure education can continue and mitigating the mental health issues created by the strain of changing lifestyles to fight COVID-19. Learn more with the AMA about managing mental health during COVID-19.
Experts Concerned A 4th Covid
- Public health experts are watching several COVID-19 hot spots around the country, including areas of Florida and Michigan.
- Currently, 27 states are showing increases in COVID-19 cases of 5 percent or more.
- Many experts are concerned that the highly contagious B.1.1.7 variant first identified in the United Kingdom could drive a fourth uptick in cases.
- Many states are also rolling back mask mandates and other physical distancing measures while vaccine distribution struggles to keep up with demand.
- The United States is continuing to average around 58,000 new cases per day, which is comparable to the summer of 2020.
All data and statistics are based on publicly available data at the time of publication. Some information may be out of date. Visit our coronavirus hub and follow our live updates page for the most recent information on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Thousands of spring break revelers have packed the streets of Miami Beach.
Floridas lax COVID-19 restrictions are likely a draw for many visitors this year.
Declaring a state of emergency, the city expanded its pandemic curfew this past weekend. It now starts at 8 p.m. a change that could last well into next month.
Few in the crowds are wearing masks. Theres little to no physical distancing. The partygoers have come from around the country, and some experts fear Floridas spring break could become the next superspreader event.
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Tracking Coronavirus Surges: Explaining The Delay
There is a delay between a policy change such as mandating vaccines or relaxing safety measures and when the effects of this change show up in the COVID-19 data. Likewise, in the case of a coronavirus variant, it may take time for the mutated virus to spread, depending on how contagious it is. A very transmissible variant such as delta can cause a faster acceleration in new cases.
An increase in the number of COVID-19 cases or hospitalizations is typically not seen until weeks after a policy or behavior change occurs.
When a person is exposed to the coronavirus, it can take up to two weeks before he or she becomes ill, gets tested and the case is counted in the data. It takes even more time for additional people to become ill after being exposed to that person, and so on. Several cycles of infection must occur before a noticeable increase shows in the data that public health officials use to track the pandemic.
Will There Be A Second Wave Of Coronavirus
As countries ease lockdowns, the worry is that populations remain highly vulnerable
With more countries planning to loosen restrictions imposed due to coronavirus but the UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, concerned about the potential for a resurgence or second wave, here is what we know from the rest of the world about the risk of Covid-19 coming back.
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How Do You Define A Second Wave Of A Virus
FWIW, theres no official definition of a second wave. A lot of it is open to interpretation, says William Schaffner, MD, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Basically, theres no set number of cases that need to be reached in a particular period of time in order for an uptick to be considered a second wave, he explains.
Public health experts have generally agreed on a basic idea behind a second wave, though. A second wave refers to a period of increasing disease transmission following an overall decline, says Richard Watkins, MD, an infectious disease physician in Akron, Ohio, and a professor of internal medicine at the Northeast Ohio Medical University. When the overall rate of COVID-19 transmission has declined across the country, and then begins to climb again, that will indicate a second wave.
There could be smaller increases in cases of the virus here and thereand thats happening right now in various parts of the country. But what will usually be considered a second wave, at least from a national perspective, is a big resurgence in cases, Dr. Schaffner says.